п»їNFL Football Picks.
Chiefs vs. Bucs Super Bowl Pick ATS.
The Zman likes the Kansas City Chiefs to win and get the spread cover in Super Bowl LV. See what he’s banking here!
Super Bowl 55 Pick: Chiefs vs. Bucs.
NFL Handicapper Ted Walker is betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win Super Bowl 55. Read his detailed reasoning here.
Super Bowl LV Total Pick.
The No. 2 and the No. 5 scoring offenses will battle it out in Super Bowl LV, so it’s no surprise that the books have set the O/U line at 56.5. NFL handicapper Jay Horne explains which side of the line holds the betting value.
Super Bowl LV Best Prop Bets.
Winning and losing is always the main focus when it comes to placing football bets, but with the Super Bowl, it’s just as much about “having fun.” Most bettors will let it all hang out on Super Bowl Sunday with a ton of prop bets. Win, lose or draw, it’s ok to have a good time once a year. Check out Loot’s favorite Super Bowl LV prop bets.
Bills vs. Chiefs Prop Bets.
With a short point spread and no true advantage either way, we look to NFL prop bets to quench our thirst for betting action! Check out Dan’s proposition bet predictions for Sunday’s AFC Championship game between the Bills and Chiefs!
Bucs vs. Packers Picks: Prop Bets.
With both teams playing excellent football, the Buccaneers/Packers point spread isn’t easy to crack. In times like this, there’s often times better value to be found in betting on props. Check out Dan’s list of value bets for the TB/GB NFC Championship game!
NFC Title Pick: Bucs vs. Packers Spread Winner.
NFL handicapper Ted Walker has a strong play versus the spread on this week’s NFC tital game. Get his side pick backed by analysis.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Total Pick.
by Jay Horne | Jan 20, 2021 | nfl.
Some bettors find more value in the playing the total and that’s exactly where Horne’s money is landing. Get his reasoning and O/U prediction.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Pick.
by Jay Horne | Jan 19, 2021 | nfl.
What happens when two really good teams meet? The point spread isn’t easy to predict in this scenario, so with few to no edges, an over/under bet is a great betting option! Check out Jay’s take on the TB/GB total here!
AFC Championship Picks: Bills at Chiefs.
The Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship game might be better than the Super Bowl! Check out Loot’s Buf/KC pick here!


NFL Picks: Odds, Analysis, ATS Predictions For Divisional Playoff Games.
Here's our "expert" advice for the two-day, four-game slate.
Super Wild Card Weekend began with the Buffalo Bills holding off the Indianapolis Colts and ended with the Cleveland Browns upsetting the Pittsburgh Steelers.
In between, the Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Baltimore Ravens and New Orleans Saints earned victories, defeating the Seattle Seahawks, Washington Football Team, Tennessee Titans and Chicago Bears, respectively.
Thus, we’re down to eight teams in the NFL playoffs, as the two No. 1 seeds — the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers — will join the six winners this week in what should be a fascinating divisional round.
Mike is tending to more important matters this week — his wife just had a baby! — but Ricky and Andre are here to break down their ATS selections ahead of the four-game slate.
NFL Divisional Round Picks, Odds, Betting Analysis | The Spread, Ep. 20.
First, here’s how the guys fared in the wild-card round (and the regular season).
Mike Cole: 0-5-1 (117-135-10) Ricky Doyle: 3-2-1 (127-125-10) Andre Khatchaturian: 3-2-1 (119-133-10)
Now, here are their picks for the divisional round, with all lines via consensus data.
Saturday, Jan. 16 Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-6.5), 4:35 p.m. ET Ricky: Packers. The Rams obviously hope to turn this into a rock fight, leaning on their elite defense and an effective rushing attack to slow the Packers’ high-powered offense. But Green Bay has the fewest giveaways and the best third-down conversion percentage in the NFL, suggesting it’ll be difficult for Los Angeles’ defense to manufacture the splash plays necessary to pull off an upset. Ultimately, the Rams’ offense is just too inconsistent, regardless of the quarterback, and it’ll be even tougher sledding with Jared Goff and his ailing thumb trying to overcome freezing temperatures at Lambeau Field. Andre: Rams. Los Angeles has the ability to mitigate Aaron Rodgers because of its excellent pass defense. The Rams allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt in the NFL this season and made Russell Wilson look like a rookie in the wild-card round. They also can slow Green Bay’s running attack, as LA had the league’s highest expected points contributed by a rush defense this season, per Pro Football Reference. The Packers and Rams ranked first and second, respectively, in time of possession. However, Los Angeles has a higher chance of succeeding on the ground, eating up clock and keeping the ball away from Rodgers. Green Bay is 23rd in expected points contributed by a rush defense.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-2.5), 8:15 p.m. ET Ricky: Ravens. Baltimore is averaging 262.2 rushing yards per game during its six-game winning streak, and that success on the ground will continue against Buffalo, which owns the second-worst run defense grade on Pro Football Focus. Mark Andrews also could be a problem for the Bills, who allowed the most receptions (92) and the second-most receiving yards (993) to tight ends during regular season, only to then get torched last week by the Colts’ tight ends. Meanwhile, the Ravens’ defense — ranked first in explosive pass rate against, per Sharp Football Stats — is fully capable of slowing Josh Allen and Co. Andre: Ravens. I love everything Ricky said about the Ravens taking advantage of the Bills’ porous rush defense. It’s also important to note the Bills allowed the seventh-most yards per carry to quarterbacks this season. Lamar Jackson will have an easy time running the ball in this one. Plus, the Ravens’ defense is nothing to laugh about. Baltimore allowed the second-fewest yards per pass attempt, so it has what it takes to slow Allen.
NFL Odds: Over/Under Picks For All Four Divisional-Round Games.
Sunday, Jan. 17 Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-10), 3:05 p.m. ET Ricky: Chiefs. Kansas City hasn’t covered since beating the New York Jets 35-9 as a 19.5-point favorite on Nov. 1, a stretch in which the Chiefs are 0-7-1 ATS. And Cleveland admittedly has a formula — namely a solid rushing attack fueled by an excellent offensive line — that could give the defending champions trouble. But this absolutely feels like a letdown spot after the Browns more or less won their Super Bowl last week in Pittsburgh. The Browns rank 22nd in expected points added (EPA) per dropback and 22nd in coverage via Pro Football Focus, which isn’t ideal when tasked with stopping Patrick Mahomes and the NFL’s most explosive passing offense. Andre: Browns. Like Ricky mentioned, the Browns have a formula to keep this one competitive. They averaged 4.8 yards per carry this season, and if the Chiefs have one weakness, it’s their run defense. Kansas City ranked 25th in expected points contributed by rush defense, per Pro Football Reference. Resting their players in Week 17 also could come back to haunt KC, as that’s three weeks of no competitive action for the Chiefs. Rust will be an issue early. Combine that with the fact we’re playing in COVID-19 times and Arrowhead Stadium won’t be as loud as usual, and you have the recipe for a monumental upset.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3), 6:40 p.m. ET Ricky: Bucs. New Orleans dominated the regular-season series, sure, but how much stock can we really put into a Week 1 matchup and another game when Antonio Brown wasn’t yet a factor in Tampa Bay’s offense? The Bucs are firing on all cylinders right now, which opens the door for this to remain a one-possession game. In which case, I trust the GOAT, Tom Brady, over his veteran counterpart, Drew Brees. Simple as that. Andre: Bucs. Rome wasn’t built in a day, and neither were the 2020 Buccaneers. AB has provided a jolt that the Bucs’ offense didn’t really have in the teams’ first two matchups. He got his feet wet after a long layoff and now looks like his former self, with five touchdowns over the last four weeks. These two defenses both are elite and cancel each other out, but I like getting points with Brady here, especially with Saints defensive end Trey Hendrickson potentially missing the game due to a neck injury. Hendrickson had two sacks in the second regular-season meeting between these teams.
Thumbnail photo via Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports Images.


NFL Picks: Super Wild Card Weekend Game Odds, Analysis, ATS Predictions.
Here's our "expert" advice as the NFL playoffs kick off.
So, we’ve made it through the 2020 NFL regular season. Somehow, someway.
Now, the real fun begins — for 14 teams across the league, at least.
The postseason kicks off with Super Wild Card Weekend, which this year consists of six games over two days. An extra playoff team was added to each conference, and the No. 1 seeds — Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC and Green Bay Packers in the NFC — receive first-round byes.
As you’re probably aware (the Cleveland Browns certainly are), we’re still dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, adding an extra (unwanted) layer of unpredictability to the playoffs this season. Per usual, we’ll take any developments as they come and factor them into our against-the-spread (ATS) picks.
But hey, they’re starting off 2021 on a positive note, as Mike and his wife welcomed an adorable little human to the world on New Year’s Day. Maybe he’ll join this column after a few trips around the sun.
Until then, we’ll lean on our in-house knuckleheads, with Ricky and Andre carrying us to the finish line while Mike enjoys the early days of fatherhood and the lack of sleep that comes with it.
Super Wild Card Weekend Picks And Odds | The Spread, Ep. 19.
Here’s how the guys fared in Week 17 (and the regular season).
Mike Cole: 6-9-1 (117-130-9) Ricky Doyle: 8-7-1 (124-123-9) Andre Khatchaturian: 7-8-1 (116-131-9)
Now, here are the Super Wild Card Weekend picks, with all lines via consensus data.
SATURDAY, JAN. 9 Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-6.5), 1:05 p.m. ET Ricky: Bills. No disrespect to Philip Rivers, but Buffalo has a distinct quarterback advantage with the way Josh Allen is playing right now, and Indianapolis won’t keep up offensively. Just three of the Colts’ 11 games since Week 6 have come against defenses not ranked in the bottom six in DVOA: They lost two (Baltimore, Pittsburgh) and won the other in overtime (Green Bay). Sure, Indy can pound the ball against inferior competition. But keeping up with a Buffalo offense ranked second in explosive pass rate? No chance. Andre: Bills. Allen ranked fifth in yards per pass attempt this season and he’s going up against a defense that allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt (T-19th). Buffalo is for real. The Bills’ average margin of victory over the last six weeks is 19.8 points. Their last seven wins have been by 10-plus points, and those wins were against some tough competition, including Seattle, Pittsburgh and Miami. They also had blowout road wins against some stingy defenses (San Francisco, Denver and New England). Indy’s biggest strength is running back Jonathan Taylor, especially against Buffalo’s leaky rush defense. But if the Bills get on top early, it might be too little, too late.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-3), 4:40 p.m. ET Ricky: Seahawks. Feel weird making this pick, because I’ve been high on the Rams since the preseason. But Seattle really turned a corner defensively, ranking second in sacks, second in pass yards allowed per attempt and third in total yards allowed per game since losing to Los Angeles in Week 10. The Seahawks own the highest-graded run defense, per Pro Football Focus, so the Rams’ inconsistent offense (23rd in expected points added per play) could struggle, especially with running back Darrell Henderson sidelined and quarterback Jared Goff’s availability (or effectiveness, at the very least) in question. Andre: Rams. Seattle likely wins this game, but I think it’ll be a close battle. The Rams had the best yards per play differential in the NFL this season, which tells me they were the most complete team in football. The Rams allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt and have what it takes to slow Russell Wilson. The question is whether the Rams’ passing attack can take advantage of Seattle’s defense, which allowed the second-most passing yards this season. For what it’s worth, nine of Seattle’s 12 wins were decided by one possession, so the Seahawks definitely play close games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (- at Washington Football Team, 8:15 p.m. ET Ricky: Bucs. Washington admittedly poses a problem defensively, ranking fourth in pressure percentage despite blitzing at just the 13th-highest rate in the NFL. It’s paramount that Tampa Bay’s offensive line step up. But can WFT score enough points to keep pace? They’re banged up in several key spots, most notably at quarterback, and Tampa Bay’s defense is excellent, too. This feels like a blowout win for the Bucs before getting punched in the mouth against better competition in the divisional round. Andre: Bucs. This game will be decided in the trenches. Washington’s pass rush is elite, but Tampa Bay allowed the fourth-fewest sacks during the regular season. On the other side, Tampa had the fourth-most sacks and is going up against an offensive line that allowed 50 sacks this season. The Bucs’ elite rush defense also will put a lot of pressure on Alex Smith, who has more picks than touchdowns this season.
NFL Playoff Odds: Over/Under Picks For All Six Wild Card Games.
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-10), 4:40 p.m. ET Ricky: Saints. Trying not to overthink what looks like a mismatch on paper. New Orleans’ defense, ranked second in Football Outsiders’ total DVOA, is excellent against both the pass and the run. And there’s reason to believe Chicago’s late-season offensive surge with Mitchell Trubisky was a mirage, seeing as the success mostly came against the Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings and Jacksonville Jaguars, all of whom have serious defensive flaws. Andre: Saints. Chicago has the worst yards per play differential among all playoff teams. New Orleans ranks fourth in that category and sixth in yards allowed per pass attempt. The Bears will struggle against an elite defense like the Saints’. Chicago’s resumé features a 1-6 SU record against playoff teams.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6), 8:15 p.m. ET Ricky: Browns. Loved this pick a lot more, obviously, before the Browns’ COVID-19 cases, which figure to hinder arguably their two biggest strengths (head coaching and offensive line). Nevertheless, I’m sticking with Cleveland, which ranks No. 1 in both pass blocking and run blocking, per PFF. That should help fend off Pittsburgh’s defensive pressure up front and take advantage of the Steelers’ own absences at the second level. Andre: Browns. Too much is being made about Kevin Stefanski’s absence. As long as Nick Chubb is playing, the Browns have a shot, especially against an exhausted Steelers team that hasn’t had a week off since Week 4. Pittsburgh has played six games since Dec. 1, including three games in a span of 12 days from Dec. 2-13. The Steelers’ rush defense has declined immensely from the first half of the season. Since Week 9, they’re allowing 4.69 yards per carry, eighth-most in that stretch. Chubb will be successful on the ground.
Thumbnail photo via Philip G. Pavely/USA TODAY Sports Images.


NFL Picks: Odds, Analysis, ATS Predictions For AFC, NFC Championship Games.
The Chiefs, Bills, Packers and Buccaneers are one win away from Super Bowl LV.
Four teams now are one win away from Super Bowl LV.
The field includes the defending champions, the projected MVP, the greatest quarterback in NFL history and a franchise that’s never won a Super Bowl despite four consecutive appearances in the 1990s.
Should be fun. In fact, it’s hard to find a more compelling quartet, from an entertainment perspective, for championship weekend.
Anyway, our resident pigskin prognosticators Ricky Doyle and Andre Khatchaturian are back to make their against-the-spread (ATS) picks for Sunday’s NFC Championship Game and AFC Championship Game.
First, here’s how they fared in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs (and the regular season).
Ricky Doyle: 2-2 (129-127-10) Andre Khatchaturian 2-2 (121-135-10)
Bucs-Packers, Bills-Chiefs Picks, Odds, Betting Analysis | The Spread, Ep. 21.
Now, here are their picks for the conference title games, with lines via consensus data.
NFC Championship Game Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5), 3:05 p.m. ET Ricky: Packers. The Bucs benefitted last week from four Saints turnovers and Drew Brees’ inability to push the ball downfield. Good luck hoping for similar defensive results this week. The Packers have the fewest giveaways in the NFL, and Aaron Rodgers ranks first in passing yards, third in completion percentage and fourth in passer rating on throws traveling 20-plus yards (among QBs with at least 30 such attempts). Rodgers has 12 touchdowns and only one interception on deep throws, and Tampa Bay’s cornerbacks have proven vulnerable at times.
Two other components to consider: The Packers’ knack for extending drives and finishing drives. Green Bay’s offense ranks first in both third-down conversion percentage and red-zone scoring percentage. Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 18th and 21st, respectively, in those areas.
Andre: Bucs. The quarterback matchup is a wash. Both guys are legends who perform well in the cold. What I’m looking at is Green Bay’s ability to establish a running attack. This season, when the Packers had more than 110 rushing yards in a game, they were 9-0. When they had fewer than that number, they were 5-3.
In the divisional round, the Packers proved me wrong and were able to establish a running attack against the Rams’ stingy rush defense. But this week, they face an even stingier rush defense. Plus, Vita Vea returns this week and should bolster Tampa Bay’s run-stuffing D. The Bucs have allowed more than 110 rushing yards just three times all season.
Finally, for what it’s worth, the Bucs haven’t lost by more than three points to any non-Saints opponent this season — and they exorcised those demons last week.
NFL Playoff Odds: Over/Under Picks For Conference Championship Games.
AFC Championship Game Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3), 6:40 p.m. ET Ricky: Bills. Patrick Mahomes has cleared the concussion protocol and will play. Which is great. Except that wasn’t the only issue that plagued the Chiefs quarterback in Kansas City’s divisional-round win over Cleveland. Mahomes also dealt with a foot injury before getting knocked out of the game, and that could be a problem this week if it hinders his mobility and reduces the number of plays he’s able to make outside the pocket.
Kansas City’s offensive line, which has dealt with injuries, showed some cracks down the stretch that forced Mahomes to improvise way too often. Buffalo ranks second in pass rush win rate, per ESPN Analytics, and creating pressure without blitzing heavily would be huge, especially with the Bills’ talented secondary nearing its potential as the team benefits from good health at the second level.
The Chiefs once were the NFL’s safest bet, looking like the Patriots of old in terms of covering the spread. Now, they’re 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games. They haven’t covered since beating the Jets 35-9 as 19 1/2-point favorites on Nov. 1, and I’m not expecting that trend to end Sunday against one of the few teams that can keep pace offensively.
Andre: Chiefs. Buffalo finally goes up against a legitimate offense for the first time in months. Since Week 12, the Bills played the Chargers (21st in yards per play), 49ers (15th), Steelers (24th), Broncos (26th), Patriots (21st) and Dolphins (23rd) in the regular season. In the playoffs, they played the Colts and Ravens (both top 10 in yards per play), but that Indy game was very close and who knows what happens if Lamar Jackson doesn’t get hurt in the divisional round? The Chiefs had the second-most yards per play and already took apart the Bills once this season.
The Bills allowed the most receptions and the second-most receiving yards to tight ends this season. Sounds like a big day for Travis Kelce.
The Chiefs’ biggest weakness is their rush defense, but the Bills don’t really rely on their running game. Buffalo is a passing team and Kansas City allowed the fifth-lowest completion percentage to QBs this season and has the tools to mitigate Josh Allen.
More NFL:
Thumbnail photo via Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK Images.




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